аЯрЁБс>ўџ BDўџџџAџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСq Пб#bjbjt+t+ 0>AAбџџџџџџ]ііііііі      D …іn„„„„„Ў2<n њ ќ ќ ќ 84 @ L${єo`pіŽ„„ŽŽp„іі„„n„„„ŽЊі„і„њ  ііііŽњ „v„њ ііњ „ZuЩ35!У  8Lњ SEASONAL OUTLOOK SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR THE ALASKAN NORTH COAST SUMMER 2003 NATIONAL / NAVAL ICE CENTER Ice conditions are expected to be lighter than normal during the 2003 navigation season. Table 1 presents the relative severity of ice conditions each season between 1953 and 2002. The National/Naval Ice Center (NIC) forecasts the 2003 season to rank between 12 and 15 in the index of our 50 years of record. In years that rank in this portion of the index, the sea route between Wainwright and Prudhoe Bay is generally open (less than 5/10’s ice concentrations) from the end of July through early to mid-October, during which a significant period of ice free navigation is possible. It is important to note, however, that during a typical ice navigation season the ice edge does not recede a significant distance northward from the Alaskan coast. With the lack of a large coastal lead, there is the potential for encroachment of higher concentrations of sea ice into the shipping lanes at any time throughout the summer season. Table 2 can be used to compare the 2003 forecast to the past 50 years (1953-2002) of climatological medians and extremes. Output from the NIC long-range prediction model (Barnett, 1980) contains pre-season indicators that the summer of 2003 will be lighter than normal conditions, this is also supported by a new method of calculating the severity index developed by Sheldon Drobot of the University of Colorado and several other factors: (a) Warmer than normal temperatures across much of Alaska during the 2002-2003 winter including a well above normal October, the normal start of the freeze up, and a well above normal April. (b) Statistical method of computing the outlook using surface pressures, heights and temperatures at specific sites point to a lighter than normal year. (c) The multi-year ice line is further north than normal due to the record melt-out of the ice in the eastern Chukchi and western Beaufort seas during the summer of 2002. (d) Theoretical ice thickness for Point Barrow has been close to climatological minimums all winter. (e) Ice conditions in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Sea during May of 2003 that are similar to conditions seen in May of 1989 and 1979, which were also light years. Eastward, from the vicinity of Herschel Island to the Canadian Archipelago, a normal season is expected during 2003 summer season. Trouble-free operations should develop in the coastal waterway from Herschel Island to the Amundsen Gulf by mid-July and continue into middle to late October. A seasonal outlook for this area is also prepared and issued by the Canadian Ice Service HYPERLINK "http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/"http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca. TABLE 1 SELECTED SEA ICE DATA AND SEVERITY INDEX FOR THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA 1953-2002 SEVERITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RANK YEAR nmi nmi nmi nmi date date #days #days MILDEST---------1 1958 50 150 50 210 07/19 10/25 92 99+ 2 1968 25 165 30 200 07/19 10/18 86 91 3 1998 15 105 20 240 07/15 10/21 72 100 4 1993 0 130 5 185 07/18 11/07 64 112 5 2002 0 135 18 225 08/13 10/14 32 64 6 1962 25 150 30 150 07/19 09/30 49+ 68+ 7 1973 5 80 5 190 07/31 10/20 73 82 8 1954 20 115 20 210 08/01 09/30 38+ 61+ 9 1997 28 150 40 150 08/08 10/10 47 63 10 1963 5 130 5 130 08/13 10/18 67 67 11 1990 0 90 40 90 07/23 10/12 75 105 12 1961 15 105 15 135 07/25 09/24 49+ 62+ 13 1996 10 65 70 155 07/16 09/25 37 71 14 1979 0 125 0 125 08/04 10/08 31 56 15 1989 10 70 55 110 07/19 10/22 34 95 16 1974 10 100 10 100 08/06 10/05 35 61 17 1978 5 70 30 95 07/25 10/09 35 76 18 1986 10 80 10 110 07/29 10/21 30 58 19 1999 15 45 45 105 07/30 10/08 56 70 20 1977 5 55 25 85 08/02 10/15 63 74 21 1959 20 65 20 65 07/19 10/06 42 86 22 1995 30 30 50 50 07/15 10/17 70 94 23 1972 0 60 30 90 07/31 10/01 45 63 24 1982 0 85 0 95 08/03 10/10 21 69 25 1994 10 35 10 60 08/05 09/24 44 55 26 1957 5 45 70 60 08/01 10/06 18 67 27 1987 0 10 0 85 08/05 10/30 35 59 28 1981 0 0 35 100 07/26 10/01 0 66+ 29 2000 10 70 10 75 07/31 10/02 19 33 30 1985 0 35 0 55 08/01 10/15 22 52 31 1967 15 0 30 50 07/25 10/12 UNK 68 32 1984 0 25 0 50 08/11 10/15 21 42 33 1966 5 0 5 45 08/01 10/22 24 65 34 1992 15 0 15 75 08/09 09/19 24 37 35 1965 0 10 0 70+ 08/25 09/25 25 32 36 2001 0 25 15 25 08/17 10/08 26 52 37 1980 15 25 15 25 08/05 09/30 11 42 38 1953 0 0 5 35 07/27 09/16 5 52+ 39 1976 0 15 0 15 08/15 10/07 21 53 40 1971 0 0 0 30 08/23 11/01 8 71 41 1991 0 0 0 20 08/16 10/02 0 46 42 1960 0 0 20+ 20 08/05 09/07 0 34 43 1988 0 0 0 25 08/09 09/20 0 32 44 1964 0 0 0 5 08/13 09/20 0 39 45 1983 0 10 0 10 08/08 09/16 0 21 46 1970 0 0 5 0 08/06 09/14 0 32 47 1956 0 0 0 40 09/07 09/30 0 24 48 1969 0 0 0 30 09/07 09/18 5 12 49 1955 0 0 5 15 09/13 09/24 0 12 MOST SEVERE----50 1975 5 0 5 0 NEVER NEVER 0 0 TABLE 1 (CONT) Column 1 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (10 Aug) Column 2 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (15 Sept) Column 3 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (10 Aug) Column 4 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (15 Sept) Column 5 - Initial date entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/ equal to five tenths ice concentration Column 6 - Date that combined ice concentration and thickness dictate end of prudent navigation Column 7 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay ice free Column 8 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration TABLE 2 FORECAST MEDIAN EXTREMES 2003 1953-2002 1953-2002 INITIAL OPENING DATE-COASTAL ROUTE TO PRUDHOE BAY1 24 Jul 01 Aug 15 Jul-NEVER LENGTH OF NAVIGATION SEASON 66 days 61 days 0 - 112 days FINAL CLOSING DATE 07 Oct 06 Oct NA2-07 Nov NUMBER OF DAYS ROUTE ENTIRELY ICE FREE 39 days 30 days 0 days-92 days DISTANCE FROM POINT BARROW NORTHWARD TO: ICE EDGE (10 Aug) 10 nmi 5 nmi 0 nmi-50 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE3 (10 Aug) 30 nmi 10 nmi 0 nmi-70 nmi ICE EDGE (15 Sept) 90 nmi 35 nmi 0 nmi-165 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE (15 Sept) 120 nmi 75 nmi 0 nmi-240 nmi 1 Opening date based on the initial date that the entire route from the Bering Sea to Prudhoe Bay may be navigated in less than/equal to five tenths concentration of ice cover. 2 No closing date in 1975 because the route never opened. 3 Distance from Point Barrow to the five tenths or greater ice concentration boundary. REFERENCES Barnett, D.G., 1980. A Practical Method of Long-Range Ice Forecasting for the North Coast of Alaska. Sea ice Processes and Models (R. Pritchard, Ed.), Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 402-409. Drobot, S.D. and Maslanik J.A., 2002. A practical method for long-range forecasting of ice severity in the Beaufort Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 29, No 8, p54-57. 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