аЯрЁБс>ўџ <>ўџџџ;џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСq По#bjbjt+t+ BAAоџџџџџџ]ШШШШШШШ4ќќќќќ TќЉ іpppppppp  8X d p $Ÿє“d” Шppppp” $ШШppp$$$p>ШpШp ќќШШШШp $њ$ ШШ p\0х5'8шРќќЎv SEASONAL OUTLOOK SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR THE ALASKAN NORTH COAST SUMMER 2001 NATIONAL / NAVAL ICE CENTER Ice conditions are expected to be near normal to slightly lighter than normal during the 2001 navigation season. Table 1 presents the relative severity of ice conditions each season between 1953 and 2000. The National/Naval Ice Center (NIC) forecasts the 2001 season to rank between 21 and 25 in the index of our 48 years of record. In years that rank in this portion of the index, the sea route between Wainwright and Prudhoe Bay is generally open (less than 5/10’s ice concentrations) from late July or early August through early to mid-October, during which a significant period of ice free navigation likely. It is important to note, however, that during a typical ice navigation season the ice edge does not recede a significant distance northward from the Alaskan coast. With the lack of a large coastal lead, there is the potential for encroachment of higher concentrations of sea ice into the shipping lanes at any time throughout the summer season. Table 2 compares the 2001 forecasts to the past 48 years (1953-2000) of climatological medians and extremes. Output from the NIC long-range prediction model (Barnett, 1980) contains pre-season indicators that the summer of 2001 should feature near normal ice conditions. Additionally, ice conditions in May of 2001 are similar to conditions seen in May of both 1987 and 2000. Both of these years (87, 00) featured summer ice conditions that were near normal. However, the following are a couple of factors that suggest a slightly lighter than normal ice season along the Alaskan North Slope for the summer of 2001: a) milder than normal temperatures across much of Alaska during the 2000-01 winter months, which led to thinner than normal ice thickness; b) forecasted 700mb heights and height anomalies point towards a mild June over the Beaufort Sea, which could aid in the beginning of the melt season. Eastward, from the vicinity of Herschel Island to the Canadian Archipelago, a near normal season is expected during 2001 summer season. Trouble-free operations should develop in the coastal waterway from Herschel Island to the Amundsen Gulf by mid-July and continue into middle to late October. A seasonal outlook for this area is also prepared and issued by the Canadian Ice Service (http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca/home.html). TABLE 1 SELECTED SEA ICE DATA AND SEVERITY INDEX FOR THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA 1953-2000 SEVERITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RANK YEAR nmi nmi nmi nmi date date #days #days MILDEST---------1 1958 50 150 50 210 07/19 10/25 92 99+ 2 1968 25 165 30 200 07/19 10/18 86 91 3 1998 15 105 20 240 07/15 10/21 72 100 4 1993 0 130 5 185 07/18 11/07 64 112 5 1962 25 150 30 150 07/19 09/30 49+ 68+ 6 1973 5 80 5 190 07/31 10/20 73 82 7 1954 20 115 20 210 08/01 09/30 38+ 61+ 8 1997 28 150 40 150 08/08 10/10 47 63 9 1963 5 130 5 130 08/13 10/18 67 67 10 1990 0 90 40 90 07/23 10/12 75 105 11 1961 15 105 15 135 07/25 09/24 49+ 62+ 12 1996 10 65 70 155 07/16 09/25 37 71 13 1979 0 125 0 125 08/04 10/08 31 56 14 1989 10 70 55 110 07/19 10/22 34 95 15 1974 10 100 10 100 08/06 10/05 35 61 16 1978 5 70 30 95 07/25 10/09 35 76 17 1986 10 80 10 110 07/29 10/21 30 58 18 1999 15 45 45 105 07/30 10/08 56 70 19 1977 5 55 25 85 08/02 10/15 63 74 20 1959 20 65 20 65 07/19 10/06 42 86 21 1995 30 30 50 50 07/15 10/17 70 94 22 1972 0 60 30 90 07/31 10/01 45 63 23 1982 0 85 0 95 08/03 10/10 21 69 24 1994 10 35 10 60 08/05 09/24 44 55 25 1957 5 45 70 60 08/01 10/06 18 67 26 1987 0 10 0 85 08/05 10/30 35 59 27 1981 0 0 35 100 07/26 10/01 0 66+ 28 2000 10 70 10 75 07/31 10/02 19 33 29 1985 0 35 0 55 08/01 10/15 22 52 30 1967 15 0 30 50 07/25 10/12 UNK 68 31 1984 0 25 0 50 08/11 10/15 21 42 32 1966 5 0 5 45 08/01 10/22 24 65 33 1992 15 0 15 75 08/09 09/19 24 37 34 1965 0 10 0 70+ 08/25 09/25 25 32 35 1980 15 25 15 25 08/05 09/30 11 42 36 1953 0 0 5 35 07/27 09/16 5 52+ 37 1976 0 15 0 15 08/15 10/07 21 53 38 1971 0 0 0 30 08/23 11/01 8 71 39 1991 0 0 0 20 08/16 10/02 0 46 40 1960 0 0 20+ 20 08/05 09/07 0 34 41 1988 0 0 0 25 08/09 09/20 0 32 42 1964 0 0 0 5 08/13 09/20 0 39 43 1983 0 10 0 10 08/08 09/16 0 21 44 1970 0 0 5 0 08/06 09/14 0 32 45 1956 0 0 0 40 09/07 09/30 0 24 46 1969 0 0 0 30 09/07 09/18 5 12 47 1955 0 0 5 15 09/13 09/24 0 12 MOST SEVERE----48 1975 5 0 5 0 NEVER NEVER 0 0 TABLE 1 (CONT) Column 1 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (10 Aug) Column 2 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (15 Sept) Column 3 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (10 Aug) Column 4 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (15 Sept) Column 5 - Initial date entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/ equal to five tenths ice concentration Column 6 - Date that combined ice concentration and thickness dictate end of prudent navigation Column 7 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay ice free Column 8 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration TABLE 2 FORECAST MEDIAN EXTREMES 2001 1953-2000 1953-2000 INITIAL OPENING DATE-COASTAL ROUTE TO PRUDHOE BAY1 01 Aug 01 Aug 15 Jul-NEVER LENGTH OF NAVIGATION SEASON 68 days 61 days 0 - 112 days FINAL CLOSING DATE 08 Oct 06 Oct NA2-07 Nov NUMBER OF DAYS ROUTE ENTIRELY ICE FREE 40 days 30 days 0 days-92 days DISTANCE FROM POINT BARROW NORTHWARD TO: ICE EDGE (10 Aug) 5 nmi 5 nmi 0 nmi-50 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE3 (10 Aug) 30 nmi 10 nmi 0 nmi-70 nmi ICE EDGE (15 Sept) 65 nmi 35 nmi 0 nmi-165 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE (15 Sept) 80 nmi 75 nmi 0 nmi-240 nmi 1 Opening date based on the initial date that the entire route from the Bering Sea to Prudhoe Bay may be navigated in less than/equal to five tenths concentration of ice cover. 2 No closing date in 1975 because the route never opened. 3 Boundary between greater than five tenths of ice cover to the north and less than/equal to five tenths to the south. REFERENCES 1. Barnett, D.G., 1980. A Practical Method of Long-Range Ice Forecasting for the North Coast of Alaska. Sea Ice Processes and Models (R. Pritchard, Ed.), Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 402-409. 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