аЯрЁБс>ўџ ;=ўџџџ:џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСq ПШ$bjbjt+t+ @AAШ џџџџџџ]ШШШШШШШ4ќќќќќ Lќћ іhhhhhhhhl n n n <Њ Ж Т $ёєхdц Шhhhhhц ШШhhhh>ШhШhl ќќШШШШhl Pl ШШl hTрm95ЧПќќІvl SEASONAL OUTLOOK SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR THE ALASKAN NORTH COAST SUMMER 2000 NATIONAL ICE CENTER/NAVAL ICE CENTER Ice conditions are expected to be lighter than normal during the 2000 navigation season. Table 1 presents the relative severity of ice conditions each season between 1953 and 1999. The National/Naval Ice Center (NIC) forecasts the 2000 season to rank between 15 to 19 in the index of our 47 years of record. In years that rank in this portion of the index, the sea route between Wainwright and Prudhoe Bay is generally open (less than 5/10’s ice concentrations) from late July through early to mid-October, with a significant period of ice free navigation likely during a portion of that period. It is important to note that during a typical ice navigation season the ice edge does not recede a significant distance northward from the Alaskan coast. With the lack of a large coastal lead, there is the potential for encroachment of higher concentrations of sea ice into the shipping lanes throughout the summer season. Table 2 compares the 2000 forecasts of significant ice events to the past 46 years (53-99) of climatological medians and extremes. Output from the NIC long-range prediction model (Barnett, 1980) contains pre-season indicators that the summer of 2000 may feature near normal ice conditions. However, a lighter than normal ice season is suggested by several other indicators. Here are some indicators that lead us to believe that a lighter than normal ice season can be expected for the summer of 2000: a) milder than normal temperatures across much of Alaska for the winter months (January through March of 2000) b) ice conditions in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Sea during May of 2000 that are similar to ice conditions during May of 1993 (which featured an unusually light ice extent during the summer season), and (c) 700mb heights and height anomalies point towards a mild June over the Beaufort Sea, which may lead to an earlier than normal beginning for the summer melt. However, one factor that may work against an earlier than normal melt for the summer of 2000 is the existence of higher concentrations of multi-year ice near the northern Alaskan coast than has been seen in recent years. Eastward, from the vicinity of Herschel Island to the Canadian Archipelago, a near normal season is expected during 2000 summer season. Trouble-free operations should develop in the coastal waterway from Herschel Island to the Amundsen Gulf by early to mid-July and continue into early to mid-October. A seasonal outlook for this area is also prepared and issued by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) located in Ottawa, Canada (http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca/home.html). TABLE 1 SELECTED SEA ICE DATA AND SEVERITY INDEX FOR THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA 1953-1999 SEVERITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RANK YEAR nmi nmi nmi nmi date date #days #days MILDEST---------1 1958 50 150 50 210 07/19 10/25 92 99+ 2 1968 25 165 30 200 07/19 10/18 86 91 3 1998 15 105 20 240 07/15 10/21 72 100 4 1993 0 130 5 185 07/18 11/07 64 112 5 1962 25 150 30 150 07/19 09/30 49+ 68+ 6 1973 5 80 5 190 07/31 10/20 73 82 7 1954 20 115 20 210 08/01 09/30 38+ 61+ 8 1997 28 150 40 150 08/08 10/10 47 63 9 1963 5 130 5 130 08/13 10/18 67 67 10 1990 0 90 40 90 07/23 10/12 75 105 11 1961 15 105 15 135 07/25 09/24 49+ 62+ 12 1996 10 65 70 155 07/16 09/25 37 71 13 1979 0 125 0 125 08/04 10/08 31 56 14 1989 10 70 55 110 07/19 10/22 34 95 15 1974 10 100 10 100 08/06 10/05 35 61 16 1978 5 70 30 95 07/25 10/09 35 76 17 1986 10 80 10 110 07/29 10/21 30 58 18 1999 15 45 45 105 07/30 10/08 56 70 19 1977 5 55 25 85 08/02 10/15 63 74 20 1959 20 65 20 65 07/19 10/06 42 86 21 1995 30 30 50 50 07/15 10/17 70 94 22 1972 0 60 30 90 07/31 10/01 45 63 23 1982 0 85 0 95 08/03 10/10 21 69 24 1994 10 35 10 60 08/05 09/24 44 55 25 1957 5 45 70 60 08/01 10/06 18 67 26 1987 0 10 0 85 08/05 10/30 35 59 27 1981 0 0 35 100 07/26 10/01 0 66+ 28 1985 0 35 0 55 08/01 10/15 22 52 29 1967 15 0 30 50 07/25 10/12 UNK 68 30 1984 0 25 0 50 08/11 10/15 21 42 31 1966 5 0 5 45 08/01 10/22 24 65 32 1992 15 0 15 75 08/09 09/19 24 37 33 1965 0 10 0 70+ 08/25 09/25 25 32 34 1980 15 25 15 25 08/05 09/30 11 42 35 1953 0 0 5 35 07/27 09/16 5 52+ 36 1976 0 15 0 15 08/15 10/07 21 53 37 1971 0 0 0 30 08/23 11/01 8 71 38 1991 0 0 0 20 08/16 10/02 0 46 39 1960 0 0 20+ 20 08/05 09/07 0 34 40 1988 0 0 0 25 08/09 09/20 0 32 41 1964 0 0 0 5 08/13 09/20 0 39 42 1983 0 10 0 10 08/08 09/16 0 21 43 1970 0 0 5 0 08/06 09/14 0 32 44 1956 0 0 0 40 09/07 09/30 0 24 45 1969 0 0 0 30 09/07 09/18 5 12 46 1955 0 0 5 15 09/13 09/24 0 12 MOST SEVERE----47 1975 5 0 5 0 NEVER NEVER 0 0 TABLE 1 (CONT) Column 1 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (10 Aug) Column 2 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (15 Sept) Column 3 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (10 Aug) Column 4 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (15 Sept) Column 5 - Initial date entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/ equal to five tenths ice concentration Column 6 - Date that combined ice concentration and thickness dictate end of prudent navigation Column 7 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay ice free Column 8 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration TABLE 2 FORECAST MEDIAN EXTREMES 2000 1953-99 1953-99 INITIAL OPENING DATE-COASTAL ROUTE TO PRUDHOE BAY1 27 July 01 Aug 15 Jul-NEVER LENGTH OF NAVIGATION SEASON 80 days 61 days 0 - 112 days FINAL CLOSING DATE 14 Oct 06 Oct NA2-07 Nov NUMBER OF DAYS ROUTE ENTIRELY ICE FREE 55 days 30 days 0 days-92 days DISTANCE FROM POINT BARROW NORTHWARD TO: ICE EDGE (10 Aug) 10 nmi 5 nmi 0 nmi-50 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE3 (10 Aug) 30 nmi 10 nmi 0 nmi-70 nmi ICE EDGE (15 Sept) 50 nmi 35 nmi 0 nmi-165 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE (15 Sept) 90 nmi 70 nmi 0 nmi-240 nmi 1 Opening date based on the initial date that the entire route from the Bering Sea to Prudhoe Bay may be navigated in less than/equal to five tenths concentration of ice cover. 2 No closing date in 1975 because the route never opened. 3 Boundary between greater than five tenths of ice cover to the north and less than/equal to five tenths to the south. REFERENCES 1. Barnett, D.G., 1980. A Practical Method of Long-Range Ice Forecasting for the North Coast of Alaska. Sea Ice Processes and Models (R. Pritchard, Ed.), Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 402-409. 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