аЯрЁБс>ўџ ACўџџџ@џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСq ПУ%bjbjt+t+ LAAУ!џџџџџџ]ШШШШШШШ4ќќќќќ Lќѓ іhhhhhhhhf h h h :Ђ Ў К $щєнdо Шhhhhhо ьШШhhhьььh&ШhШhf ќќШШШШhf ьzьf ШШf hTPРпѕ­ОќќŽ^f SEASONAL OUTLOOK SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR THE ALASKAN NORTH COAST SUMMER 1999 NATIONAL ICE CENTER/NAVAL ICE CENTER Ice conditions are expected to be heavier than normal during the 1999 navigation season. Table 1 presents the relative severity of ice conditions each season between 1953 and 1998. The National/Naval Ice Center (NIC) forecasts the 1999 season to rank between 29 to 33 in the index of our 46 years of record. In years that rank in this portion of the index, the sea route between Wainwright and Prudhoe Bay is generally open from early to mid-August until late September with some intermittent closings during that period. During a typical ice navigation season, the ice edge does not recede a significant distance northward from the Alaskan coast. With the lack of a large coastal lead, there is constant potential for encroachment of higher concentrations of sea ice into the shipping lanes throughout the summer season. Table 2 compares the 1999 forecasts of significant ice events to the past 44 years (53-97) of climatological median and extremes. Output from the NIC long-range prediction model (Barnett, 1980) contains pre-season indicators that 1999 may be among the lower half of the index years, which are typically characterized by heavier than normal ice conditions. The prediction of a heavier than normal ice season is corroborated by several other indicators: a) colder than normal temperatures across much of Alaska for the winter months (January through March of 1999) b) ice conditions in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Sea during May of 1999 that are similar to ice conditions during May of 1975 (during the summer of 1975, the route from Wainwright to Prudhoe Bay NEVER opened) and (c) statistical methods of computing the seasonal outlook, using surface pressures, heights and temperatures taken from specific sites across the Arctic, that point toward a heavier than normal ice season for the summer of 1999. However, one argument against a heavier than normal ice season is the fact that the multi-year ice line is further north than normal, due to the near record melt-out of the ice in the eastern Chukchi and western Beaufort Seas during the summer of 1998. Eastward, from the vicinity of Herschel Island to the Canadian Archipelago, a near normal season is expected during 1999 summer season. Trouble-free operations should develop in the coastal waterway from Herschel Island to the Amundsen Gulf by late July and continue into early to mid-September. Between Prudhoe Bay and Herschel Island, initial recession of higher ice concentrations may occur along the coast due to thinner ice types. However, throughout the summer months the ice will have a greater likelihood of pinching down against the coast, depending on the prevalent weather pattern. A seasonal outlook for this area is also prepared and issued by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) located in Ottawa, Canada (http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca/home.html). TABLE 1 SELECTED SEA ICE DATA AND SEVERITY INDEX FOR THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA 1953-1998 SEVERITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RANK YEAR nmi nmi nmi nmi date date #days #days MILDEST---------1 1958 50 150 50 210 07/19 10/25 92 99+ 2 1968 25 165 30 200 07/19 10/18 86 91 3 1998 15 105 20 240 07/15 10/21 72 100 4 1993 0 130 5 185 07/18 11/07 64 112 5 1962 25 150 30 150 07/19 09/30 49+ 68+ 6 1973 5 80 5 190 07/31 10/20 73 82 7 1954 20 115 20 210 08/01 09/30 38+ 61+ 8 1997 28 150 40 150 08/08 10/10 47 63 9 1963 5 130 5 130 08/13 10/18 67 67 10 1990 0 90 40 90 07/23 10/12 75 105 11 1961 15 105 15 135 07/25 09/24 49+ 62+ 12 1996 10 65 70 155 07/16 09/25 37 71 13 1979 0 125 0 125 08/04 10/08 31 56 14 1989 10 70 55 110 07/19 10/22 34 95 15 1974 10 100 10 100 08/06 10/05 35 61 16 1978 5 70 30 95 07/25 10/09 35 76 17 1986 10 80 10 110 07/29 10/21 30 58 18 1977 5 55 25 85 08/02 10/15 63 74 19 1959 20 65 20 65 07/19 10/06 42 86 20 1995 30 30 50 50 07/15 10/17 70 94 21 1972 0 60 30 90 07/31 10/01 45 63 22 1982 0 85 0 95 08/03 10/10 21 69 23 1994 10 35 10 60 08/05 09/24 44 55 24 1957 5 45 70 60 08/01 10/06 18 67 25 1987 0 10 0 85 08/05 10/30 35 59 26 1981 0 0 35 100 07/26 10/01 0 66+ 27 1985 0 35 0 55 08/01 10/15 22 52 28 1967 15 0 30 50 07/25 10/12 UNK 68 29 1984 0 25 0 50 08/11 10/15 21 42 30 1966 5 0 5 45 08/01 10/22 24 65 31 1992 15 0 15 75 08/09 09/19 24 37 32 1965 0 10 0 70+ 08/25 09/25 25 32 33 1980 15 25 15 25 08/05 09/30 11 42 34 1953 0 0 5 35 07/27 09/16 5 52+ 35 1976 0 15 0 15 08/15 10/07 21 53 36 1971 0 0 0 30 08/23 11/01 8 71 37 1991 0 0 0 20 08/16 10/02 0 46 38 1960 0 0 20+ 20 08/05 09/07 0 34 39 1988 0 0 0 25 08/09 09/20 0 32 40 1964 0 0 0 5 08/13 09/20 0 39 41 1983 0 10 0 10 08/08 09/16 0 21 42 1970 0 0 5 0 08/06 09/14 0 32 43 1956 0 0 0 40 09/07 09/30 0 24 44 1969 0 0 0 30 09/07 09/18 5 12 45 1955 0 0 5 15 09/13 09/24 0 12 MOST SEVERE----46 1975 5 0 5 0 NEVER NEVER 0 0 TABLE 1 (CONT) Column 1 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (10 Aug) Column 2 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (15 Sept) Column 3 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (10 Aug) Column 4 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (15 Sept) Column 5 - Initial date entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/ equal to five tenths ice concentration Column 6 - Date that combined ice concentration and thickness dictate end of prudent navigation Column 7 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay ice free Column 8 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration TABLE 2 FORECAST MEDIAN EXTREMES 1999 1953-97 1953-97 INITIAL OPENING DATE-COASTAL ROUTE TO PRUDHOE BAY1 03 Aug 03 Aug 15 Jul-NEVER LENGTH OF NAVIGATION SEASON 56 days 61 days 0 - 112 days FINAL CLOSING DATE 28 Sept 06 Oct NA2-07 Nov NUMBER OF DAYS ROUTE ENTIRELY ICE FREE 14 days 25 days 0 days-92 days DISTANCE FROM POINT BARROW NORTHWARD TO: ICE EDGE (10 Aug) 5 nmi 0 nmi 0 nmi-50 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE3 (10 Aug) 5 nmi 5 nmi 0 nmi-70 nmi ICE EDGE (15 Sept) 0 nmi 35 nmi 0 nmi-165 nmi HEAVY PACK EDGE (15 Sept) 40 nmi 65 nmi 0 nmi-210 nmi 1 Opening date based on the initial date that the entire route from the Bering Sea to Prudhoe Bay may be navigated in less than/equal to five tenths concentration of ice cover. 2 No closing date in 1975 because the route never opened. 3 Boundary between greater than five tenths of ice cover to the north and less than/equal to five tenths to the south. REFERENCES 1. Barnett, D.G., 1980. A Practical Method of Long-Range Ice Forecasting for the North Coast of Alaska. Sea Ice Processes and Models (R. Pritchard, Ed.), Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, 402-409. 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