ࡱ> 9xz?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwq bjbjt+t+ *AAΝyl]  rrr8T$:T/?<kAB\.N0N0N0N1aN1QT$BV6Xd%Tr{BY>/?{B{B%TH I(HHH{B\ r.N {B.NHHIr~Mr.N6PgG N Prepared by the North American Ice Service A collaboration of the Canadian Ice Service and the National/Naval Ice Center 03 June 2005 Seasonal Outlook For North American Arctic Waters Summer 2005  Table of contents Introduction 3 General Winter Conditions and Brief Outlook 5 Hudson Bay and Approaches Freeze-up and Winter Regime 6 Observed Ice Conditions8 Outlook 9 Break-up Outlook Dates 10 Eastern Arctic Freeze-up and Winter Regime .......11 Observed Ice Conditions..12 Outlook ...14 Break-up Outlook Dates ..16 Western Arctic Freeze-up and Winter Regime 17 Observed Ice Conditions...18 Outlook........21 Break-up Outlook Dates .. 22 Selected Sea Ice Data and Severity Index for the North coast of Alaska 1953-2004..23 Appendix A- Key to Canadian Ice Service Sea Ice Symbols 25 B- Stage of Development of Sea Ice 25 C- Broadcast Schedules for Arctic Ice and Marine Conditions 25 List of Figures Figure 1. Percentage of Normal Freezing Degree Days from October 2004 to April 2005 4 Figure 2. Departure from Normal Temperatures for May 1-15, 2005 4 Figure 3. Hudson Bay and Approaches Regional Chart for May 15th, 2005...8 Figure 4. Eastern Arctic Regional Chart for May 15th, 2005 13 Figure 5. Beaufort Sea Regional Chart for May 27, 2005 19 Figure 6. Canadian Archipelago Regional Chart for May 27, 2005 20 Ice Conditions in Northern American Arctic Waters Introduction This outlook is produced by the North American Ice Service, which is a joint co-operation of the Canadian Ice Service and the U.S. National Ice Center. It will give an indication of the expected pattern of breakup and clearing of ice in the North American Arctic waters. It will identify areas and timings when breakup and clearing will likely occur with emphasis on those areas where there is ship navigation and other marine activities. The outlook has been developed through the analysis of the meteorological and ice growth regimes. Thorough analyses have been done of extensive Radarsat imagery collected during the past winter and spring. NOAA, MODIS and ERS-1 satellite imagery were also used for the evaluation of the ice cover. All of this ice information was used in the preparation of regional ice analyses for the Arctic and Hudson Bay. The results of the meteorological and ice analyses are then compared with previous years ice conditions and, in conjunction with the forecast for wind and temperatures for June, are applied to evaluate the breakup and the clearing of ice in the areas of interest. The Canadian Meteorological Centre provides the temperature regime for the period from the end of June to the end of August. Any variations from these forecast parameters have an impact on the forecast breakup pattern and timing. Tables are included showing the forecast breakup or clearing dates along with median dates and last year's dates for each region. During the summer these events will be updated by a bimonthly issue of a 30-day forecast to enable planning of shipping or other activities according to changing trends. These forecasts will also include a prediction of the beginning of the freeze-up process throughout the regions. Daily radio broadcasts of ice charts and forecasts will be made to support ongoing operations in the various areas where ice affects marine activities. Appendix C contains links to these broadcast schedules as well as Aerial Reconnaissance Radio Facsimile Broadcast and NOAA Alaskan Marine Radio frequencies. Appendix A provides a link to the key to ice symbols showing the principle features of the International Ice symbols used on the ice charts, while Appendix B defines the ice terminology which is most frequently used. Figure 1: 1000mb mean pressure pattern from October 1st, 2004 to April 30th, 2005 with percentage of normal freezing degree-days over the winter season. Figure 2: 1000 mb mean pressure pattern from May 1st to May 15th 2005 with departure from normal temperatures. General Winter Conditions and Brief Outlook The mean 1000 mb pressure pattern from October 01st, 2004 to April 30th, 2005 is represented in Figure 1. It indicates a low pressure area near the southern tip of Greenland with a trough extending northwestward. As a result a light and variable flow generally predominated over the Labrador coast, Davis Strait, Baffin Bay as well as over the Central Arctic. Hudson Bay was under the influence of a light to moderate northwesterly flow. A high pressure system over northwestern Beaufort Sea with a ridge stretching southeastward dominated the pressure pattern over the western Arctic. As a result eastern Beaufort Sea was generally under the influence of a light and variable flow while a light to moderate easterly flow dominated along the Alaskan coast. A low pressure system over the Aleutians generated a moderate northeasterly flow over the Bering Strait area. Temperatures during the month of October were in general above normal over the entire Arctic except near to below normal over the western Arctic. Pond Inlets temperatures were 5.6C above normal in October. Reported temperatures were in general below normal and in some locations much below normal, for the months of November and December for most of the Arctic except for continued above normal over Hudson Bay area for the month of November. Pelly Bays temperatures in November were 5.7C below normal while they were 7.0C below normal at Hall Beach during the following month. In January, temperatures were in general above normal except below normal over the Baffin Island area and along the Labrador coast. Most locations in February reported above normal temperatures except for near to below normal temperatures over the Waterways area. Above normal temperatures were generally reported over most areas in March and April. Of note, Marchs temperatures in Clyde and Iqaluit were 5.7C and 6.4C above normal, respectively. Freezing degree-day accumulation was in generally within 5 percent of the normal but within 10 to 15 percent in Davis Strait and along the Labrador coast. These values are indicated in Figure 1. The mean 1000 mb pressure pattern for the first half of May is shown in Figure 2. It indicates a low pressure over Foxe Basin with a trough extending northward. The Beaufort Sea area was under the influence of a ridge of high pressure extending from a high pressure system located over Victoria Island. A deep low pressure system south of the Aleutians was generating moderate easterly flow over the Alaskan coast. Temperatures in the first two weeks in May were above normal over the Beaufort Sea, High Arctic and along the Labrador coast but colder than normal elsewhere. Above normal temperatures are generally forecast for the whole Arctic Area for the first half of June. Over the rest of the summer season near to above normal temperatures are generally forecast. As a result breakup events will occur at an earlier date than normal in most locations. However later than normal breakup events are forecast in Larsen Sound and Queen Maud areas where the amount of old ice is significantly higher than normal. As well later than normal breakup and clearing events could be expected in southeastern Beaufort Sea since the old ice edge is closer to the shore than normal. Hudson Bay and Approaches Freeze-up and Winter Ice Regime Above normal temperatures generally prevailed over the entire area during the months of October and November followed by significantly below normal temperatures during the next two months. Milder to much milder than normal temperatures were generally reported in February and March except near normal over western and southern Hudson Bay. In April above to much above normal temperatures were reported over much of the forecast area. Freeze up followed a near normal pattern in Hudson Bay but was delayed by about 10 days in Hudson Strait, Davis Strait, and along the Labrador coast. Ice started to form along the coast of Southampton Island in late October and early November and spread along the western shore of Hudson Bay during the first two weeks of November. At the end of November mostly greywhite ice was covering the northern half of Hudson Bay while new and grey ice were predominant over the southern section. At that time open water was still reported along the eastern shore of Hudson Bay north of the Belcher Islands. Ice started to form in northern Davis Strait during the first week of November and progressed southward to reach the entrance to Frobisher Bay by months end. At that time ice was starting to form in the western end of Hudson Strait. At the end of November freeze up was near normal in Hudson Bay but a week to 2 weeks late elsewhere. Colder than normal temperatures in December allowed for ice to further develop and at the end of the year, thin first year ice was covering Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. This situation was normal. At that time first year ice was predominant in Davis Strait but the seaward extent of the pack was less than normal. The ice extent along the Labrador coast was near normal but the ice thickness was significantly less than normal. At the end of the year the calculated ice thicknesses were near normal over Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait but less than normal in Davis Strait and along the Labrador coast. The trace of old ice, which migrated in northern Davis Strait at the beginning of December, progressed gradually southward and reached the southern portion of the Strait at the end of the year. Continuing colder than normal temperatures during the first month of the year thickened the ice in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait and Davis Strait to the medium and thin first year ice stages. Despite colder than normal temperatures thinner than normal ice condition was still prevailing along the Labrador coast as well as in Frobisher Bay. During February and March milder than normal temperatures were reported over most of the forecast area except below normal over western Hudson Bay. However mean temperatures allowed for a further increase in ice thicknesses and at the end of February thick first year ice was prevalent almost everywhere over the forecast area except for somewhat thinner ice along the Labrador coast. Thick first year ice became predominant along the Labrador coast before the end of March. The trace of old ice continued its southward progression and spread along the Labrador coast, reaching the approach to Groswater Bay at the end of February. Ice conditions, at the end of March, were near normal except for the eastern ice edge in Davis Strait which was closer to the shore than normal. Above to much above normal temperatures were widespread in April so little change occurred during that month. At the end of April the ice situation was near normal except for the seaward extent of the ice in Davis Strait which remained a lot less than normal. During the first half of May temperatures were in general above normal except below normal over western Hudson Bay. At mid-May loose ice or open water areas were developing along the northwestern shore of Hudson Bay, south of Southampton Island, along the eastern shore of James Bay as well as along parts of Hudson Straits Shores. At that time the ice concentration along the Labrador coast and the eastern extent of the main pack in southern Davis Strait were less than normal. The calculated ice thicknesses were thinner than normal in most locations at mid-May. Observed Ice Conditions The regional chart in figure 3 was based on the analysis of Radarsat and NOAA imageries around May 15th, 2005. This chart reveals some of the following features: Looser than normal ice conditions along the eastern shore of James Bay and Hudson Bay as well as along the northern and southern shores Hudson Strait. Ice edge in Southern Davis and along the Labrador coast much closer to the shore than normal. As well ice there generally looser than normal. Near normal calculated ice thickness in western Hudson Bay but less than normal elsewhere. Smaller fast ice areas east of the Belcher Islands than normal. Figure 3: Hudson Bay and Approaches Regional chart for May 15th, 2005 Outlook for Hudson Bay and Approaches Hudson Bay area and the northern Labrador coast were generally under the influence of a moderate occasionally strong south southeasterly flow during the second half of May. The exception was the northwestern section of Hudson Bay where the winds were generally from the northeast during the last week of the month. As a result above to well above normal temperatures were generally reported over the forecast area. Because of the milder than normal temperatures and predominant southerly winds a wider than normal open water lead has already developed along the southwest shore of Hudson Bay as well as along the southern shore of Hudson Strait in late May. Also significant open water areas could already be found in James Bay and along parts of the eastern shore of Hudson Bay. However because the winds have been predominantly onshore, the ice conditions over the northwestern section of Hudson Bay was close to what is normally expected at the end of May. The seaward ice extent along the Labrador coast and in southern Davis Strait remained significantly less than normal. The fast ice in western Lake Melville broke up early in the second week of May and about a week later in the eastern section. A series of low will cross the area during the first half of June bringing moderate variable winds. As a result temperatures will oscillate between above and below normal but the average should be close the normal over the period. For the rest of the summer above normal temperatures are forecast except near normal over northwestern Hudson Bay. The fact that breakup is already in advance compared to normal and that looser than normal ice conditions are encountered in many areas we expect the ice to clear earlier than normal at most locations. The exception is northwestern Hudson Bay which should clear near its normal date or just a few days earlier. The Labrador coast will clear during the first week in July which is about three weeks earlier than normal and the open water route to Churchill will develop during the third week in July which is a near normal event. James Bay, Ungava Bay and Frobisher Bay are expected to clear during the last week of July, about 2 weeks earlier than normal. The clearing of Hudson Bay will occur near mid-August which is a few days earlier than normal. Table 1: Hudson Bay and Approaches Break-up Pattern and Outlook 2004MedianOutlook for 2005Labrador Coast to Cape Chidley - Clearing 24 July 01 August 04-07 JulFrobisher Bay - Open drift or less - Clearing 18 July 30 July 21 July 12 August 06-09 Jul 28-31 JulUngava Bay - Clearing 23 July 05 August 24-27 JulHudson Strait - Clearing 03 August 10 August 31 Jul 03 AugOpen water route to Churchill 25 July 21 July 17-20 JulHudson Bay - Clearing  10 September  18 August 14-17 AugJames Bay - Clearing 06 September 31 July 21-24 Jul Eastern Arctic Freeze-up and Winter Ice Regime Temperatures in October were generally above to much above normal over the entire forecast area. Novembers temperatures were generally below normal except continuing above normal over Baffin Bay. Decembers temperatures were, for the most part, below normal except much below normal over the south central section from Resolute Bay area southeastward to Foxe Basin. During the first three months of 2005, the High Arctic experienced above to much above normal temperatures. Over the rest of the eastern Arctic January and February were near to above normal except below normal over the south central section while Marchs temperatures were above to much above normal everywhere. That same trend continued in April except for a return to near normal temperatures in the High Arctic. At the end of summer, the old ice distribution was in general close to what could be normally expected except for somewhat more old ice than normal in southwestern Lancaster Sound, in McDougall Sound as well as in the approaches to Pelly Bay. New ice started to form in the Canadian Archipelago in late September and at mid-October greywhite ice had formed in Prince Regent Inlet, western Lancaster Sound as well as in Jones Sound. At that time thin first year ice was already predominant in Norwegian Bay, northward into Eureka Sound while new ice was found in eastern Lancaster Sound and in northern Foxe Basin. Two weeks later thin first year ice was generally predominant in the Archipelago while grey and greywhite ice prevailed in northwestern Baffin Bay as well as in northern Foxe Baffin. At the end of October freeze up was generally near normal except a week to 10 days late in northern Baffin Bay. New and grey ice started to develop in southern Foxe Basin during the first week in May. At that time Norwegian Bay and Eureka Sound became consolidated. As well new and grey ice developed rapidly during the first half of November in northeastern and southwestern Baffin Bay and in northern Davis Strait during the second half of the month. Pond and Admiralty Inlets became consolidated near mid-November which is a week or so later than normal. At the end of the month thin first year ice was predominant in northern Foxe Basin northward to Jones Sound and in northwestern Baffin Bay while thinner ice prevailed in southern Foxe Basin and in the rest of Baffin Bay. Medium first year ice with some old ice was predominant in eastern Norwegian Bay northward into Eureka Channel and in Kane Basin. At that time the bergy water lead along the west coast of Greenland extended farther north than normal. At the end of 2004 ice conditions were close to normal except in southern Baffin Bay and northern Davis Strait where the seaward ice extent was significantly less than normal. The ice bridge in Kane Basin formed in late December which is earlier than normal. Patchy areas of very open to open drift old ice that drifted down from Kane Basin were found in the western section of Baffin Bay which is normally the case at the end of December. January and February saw a gradual increase in ice thicknesses and at the end of February thick first year ice has spread over most of the Eastern Arctic area. Eastern Barrow Strait and the northern section of Prince Regent Inlet consolidated during the last half of February which is a near normal event for the former but an early event for the latter. Little change has been noticed during March and April except for a slow eastward expansion of the ice pack in Davis Strait. However the seaward extent of the ice pack remained less than normal at the end of the April. At that time the fast ice extent along the eastern shore of Baffin Island was much less than normal. During the first half of May a low pressure system located over Foxe Basin generated a moderate northwesterly flow over the eastern Arctic area and as a result below normal temperatures were generally reported except over the High Arctic where temperatures were more moderate. Relatively speaking Hall Beach was the coldest spot during that period with temperatures averring 2.5C below normal. Little overall changes were noticed in ice conditions during the first half in May except for a slight westward expansion of the bergy water area along the western coast of Greenland. Also open water areas started to develop in Roes Welcome Sound as well as in the southern section of Nares Strait. Observed Ice Conditions The regional chart in figure 4 was based on the analysis of Radarsat and NOAA imageries around May 15th, 2005. This chart reveals the following features: The bergy water lead along the west Greenland Coast was more extensive than normal. The fast ice edge in eastern Barrow Strait was located near Prince Leopold Island which is its normal position. More old ice than normal was present in Pelly Bay and its approaches. Seaward extent of the ice pack in northern Davis Strait less than normal. The extent of the fast ice along the eastern coast of Baffin Island was much less than normal. Figure 4: Eastern Arctic regional chart for May 15th, 2005 Outlook for the Eastern Arctic Baffin/Davis Area and Foxe Basin A strong ridge of high pressure extending from the Labrador Sea northward combined with a low pressure system well to the west produced a generally southerly flow over the forecast area during the third week in May. As a result above normal temperatures generally prevailed over that period. The general flow change to north northeasterly during the last week in May and as a result temperatures then cool to near normal values. The bergy water area in southern Nares Strait gradually expanded and reached the entrance to Jones Sound before the end of May. Eastern Lancaster Sound experienced a significant decrease in ice concentration during the last two weeks in May and the bergy water area along the western coast of Greenland continued to expand. During that time loose ice areas developed in northern Foxe Basin and Roes welcome Sound was mostly open water at the end of May. A light and variable flow will predominate during the first half of June except for a moderate northwesterly flow over Foxe Basin during the second week. Above normal temperatures will generally prevail over the forecast area during the first two weeks in June. Assuming near to above normal temperatures during the rest of the summer, earlier than normal breakups are generally expected. The exception is in Foxe Basin where breakups will occur at a later date than normal. The open drift or less route across northern Baffin Bay to Thule will develop during the second week in July which is a week to 10 days earlier than normal. The bergy water route for the above area will develop a week or so later. The open drift route to Cape Dyer and Home Bay will develop near mid-July and during the last week of July respectively, about 10 days to two weeks earlier than what is normally expected for both events. Davis Strait will clear about two weeks early, hence during the third week in August and Baffin Bay will be mainly bergy water in early September, about a week earlier than normal. The open water route to Hall Beach will develop and the clearing of Foxe Basin will occur during second and last week of September respectively, about a week later than normal for both events. Parry Channel During the third week of May, a light to moderate east to southeasterly flow prevailed over the Parry Channel while a light northwesterly flow was generally reported during the last week of the month. Temperatures were above normal during the third week but normal during the last week of May. Eastern Barrow Strait was still consolidated at the end of May which is normal. At that time Lancaster Sound was mobile and loose ice areas were developing in parts of the sound especially over the western section. Elsewhere, all the bays and inlets were still consolidated at the end of May. A generally light and variable flow is forecast for the first week of June followed by a moderate northerly flow during the second week. Temperatures will be above normal during the first week but below normal over the second week of June. Assuming near to above normal temperatures for the rest of the summer, break-up events should occur earlier or near their normal dates. The exception is McDougall Sound where a later than normal breakup is forecast due to higher than normal old ice concentration. Eastern Barrow Strait will fracture during the second week in July and the western section of the strait 10 days to two weeks later which are slightly early events. Pond inlet, northern Admiralty Inlet and Wellington Channel will fracture during the third week of July, which is a few day to a week earlier than normal. The clearing of Pond Inlet and northern Admiralty Inlet will occur during the second week of August, a few days earlier than normal. Wellington Channel will fracture near its normal date that is to say near the end of July while McDougall Sounds fracture will be delayed by about a week, hence occurring just before mid-August. High Arctic A light to moderate east to southeasterly flow generally predominated over the High Arctic during the third week in May followed a light to moderate northwesterly flow during the last week. At the end of May, ice conditions in the High Arctic were normal. Light and variable winds will predominate over the High Arctic during the first week of June but a light to moderate northwesterly flow is expected to predominate during the second week of the month. Mean air temperatures will be near normal for the first two weeks of June. Assuming near to above normal temperatures for the rest of the summer, breakup events will generally occur near their normal dates or a few days earlier. Kane Basin will fracture during the third week in July which is a near normal event. Jones Sound will fracture at the end of July or early August which is also a near normal event. Southern Norwegian Bay is forecast to fracture in early August while the northern section fracture a week to 10 days later which, in both cases, are near normal events. The fracture and clearing of Eureka Sound will be happening near its normal date that is to say during the first and third week of August respectively. Table 2: Eastern Arctic - Break-up Pattern and Outlook 2004MedianOutlook for 2005Route across Northern Baffin Bay - Open drift or less - Bergy water route 06 July 27 July 21 July 29 July 13-16 Jul 20-23 JulBaffin Bay - Clearing 22 September 11 September 03-06 SepDavis Strait - Clearing 18 August 03 September 20-23 AugHome Bay - Open drift or less 05 August 09 August 25-27 JulCape Dyer - Open drift or less 06 August 29 July 13-16 JulOpen water route to Hall Beach 11 September 06 September 10-13 SepFoxe Basin - Clearing never 21 September 25-28 SepPond Inlet - Fracture1 - Clearing 26 July 13 August 26 July 13 August 19-22 Jul 06-09 AugAdmiralty Inlet northern half - Fracture1 - Mostly bergy water 22 July 12 August 22 July 12 August 18-21 Jul 08-11 AugLancaster Sound - Fracture1 Not consolidated 08 July Not consolidatedBarrow Strait to Resolute - Fracture/eastern1 - Fracture/western1 Not consolidated 01 August 11 July 25 July 07-10 Jul 21-14 JulWellington Channel - Fracture1 05 August 29 July 25-28 JulMcDougall Sound - Fracture1 08 August 06 August 10-13 AugKane Basin - Fracture1 15 July  24 July 20-23 JulJones Sound - Fracture1 30 July 02 August 30 Jul 02 AugNorwegian Bay - Fracture/southern1 - Fracture/northern1 04 Agust 21 August 02 August 10 August 01-04 Aug 08-11 AugEureka Sound - Fracture1 - Mostly bergy water 21 August Never 03 August 18 August 01-04 Aug 18-21 AugPacer Goose route to Thule -Open drift or less -Bergy water route 06 July 27 July 21 July 29 July 13-16 Jul 20-23 Jul Western Arctic Freeze-up and Winter Ice Regime Mean air temperatures during October through December were in general near to below normal except much below normal over Queen Maud Gulf area and in southern Beaufort Sea during the last month of the year. Near to above normal temperatures were generally reported in January except much above over the Beaufort Sea area. Februarys temperatures were generally below normal except continued above normal over the Beaufort Sea while near to above normal temperatures prevailed over most areas in March. Above normal temperatures continued into April except near normal in southeastern Beaufort Sea and along the Alaskan coast. At the beginning of October the southern edge of the old ice pack in southeastern Beaufort Sea was significantly closer to the shore than normal. Also a loose area of old ice was extending from the main old ice pack southward to Franklin Bay and in western Amundsen Gulf. Normally Franklin Bay and western Amundsen Gulf are open water in early October. Meanwhile the old ice pack off the Alaskan coast was much farther offshore than normal, as it has been the case the last few years. At that time much more old ice than normal was found in Larsen Sound southward to Queen Maud Gulf which could have a significant impact on the next arctic shipping season. Somewhat more old ice than normal was also found in McClintock Channel and Viscount Melville Sound. Very open drift old ice was present in Peel Sound at that time which is what is normally expected. The northern section of McDougall Sound became consolidated early in October which is two weeks earlier than normal. New ice started to develop in the Waterways and in the southeastern section of the Beaufort Sea near mid-October and along the Alaskan coast a week later. At mid-October Grey and greywhite ice have already developed in eastern Larsen Sound, northward. Normal ice growth during the second half of October allowed for much of the young ice to turn into thin first year first during the last week of the month. The exception is the western section of the Waterways which remained covered with greywhite until mid-November. The Mackenzie Delta became consolidated during the third week of October which is normal. Peel Sound consolidated during the second week of November and Larsen Sound, Queen Maud Gulf and the Waterways were all consolidated about a week later. Those events were a few days to a week late compared to normal. In December little change was noted except for a general thickening of the ice which reached the medium thick first year ice stage at the end of the month. At the end of 2004 the ice conditions in the western Arctic were near normal except for the following two exceptions: the old ice edge along the Alaskan coast lay much further offshore than normal and there was significantly more old ice than normal in Larsen Sound southward to Queen Maud Gulf which at that time was consolidated. In January ice thickened to thick first year almost everywhere. However persistent northwesterly winds during the first half of January pushed the old ice pack towards the shore in the southeast section of the Beaufort Sea area. In fact at the end of the month the old ice pack was lying about 40 miles north of the Tuk Peninsula. Normally the old ice pack lies about 100 miles or more off the Tuk Peninsula coast. At the same time a tongue of mainly thick first year ice was found in the western central section of the Beaufort Sea where we normally found old ice. In February and March little overall change occurred as the tongue of mainly first year ice in western central Beaufort Sea persisted and the position of the old ice edge in the southeastern section of the Beaufort Sea remained much closer from the shore than normal. However the old ice pack along the Alaskan did move slightly towards the shore. In April mainly offshore winds during the last part of the month developed open water or thin ice areas along the fast ice edge in Amundsen Gulf and along the Tuk peninsula as well as causing the old ice pack in southeastern Beaufort Sea to retreat slightly. At the end of April much less old ice than normal still prevailed in the west central section of the Beaufort Sea. The first half of May was in general colder than normal except near normal over the Beaufort Sea area. As a result little change occurred during the first half of May except for loose ice areas developing along the fast ice edges in Amundsen Gulf and along the Tuk peninsula. Observed Ice Conditions The regional ice charts in figure 5 and 6 were based on an analysis of Radarsat and NOAA imagery from around 27 May, 2005. These charts reveal some of the following features: Significantly more old ice than normal in Larsen Sound southward to Queen Maud Gulf. Old ice pack along the Alaskan coast closer to the shore than normal. Old ice pack closer to the shore then normal in southeast Beaufort Sea. A tongue of first year ice lies in western central Beaufort Sea.  Figure 5: Beaufort Sea Regional chart for May 27th, 2005  Figure 6: Canadian Archipelago Regional chart for May 27th, 2005 Outlook for the Western Arctic In general because of near normal temperatures over the past winter as well as near to slightly above normal forecast temperatures over the next three months, clearing events should occur near their normal dates over the Beaufort Sea and the Waterways. However clearing in the southeastern section of the Beaufort Sea could by delayed especially if the old ice pack remains closer to the shore than normal. Conversely, breaking and clearing events in Larsen Sound southward to Queen Maud Gulf will be significantly delayed due to higher than normal amount of old ice in that general area. Clearing of the Mackenzie Delta will occur near mid-June and Kugmallit Bay will clear a week to 10 days later which, in both cases, are near normal event. The Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and Amundsen Gulf are expected to fracture during the first and second week of July respectively, which are also near normal events. Coronation Gulf will fracture during the second week of July and clear just before the end of the month, which are slightly early events. Due to the presence of old ice, the open water route from Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst will develop about 10 days later than normal, hence during the first week in August. Peel Sound will fracture in late July or early August as per normal. Fracture in Queen Maud Gulf and Larsen Sound will occur in early August and near mid-August respectively, about 10 to 14 days later than normal. Amundsen Gulf will clear and an open water route to Taloyoak will develop during the last week of August which represents a 10 to 14 days delay compared to normal for both events. The open drift or less route from Prudhoe Bay to Point Barrow and from Mackenzie Bay to Prudhoe Bay will develop during the second and third week of August respectively. Table 3: Western Arctic Break-up Pattern and Outlook 2004MedianOutlook for 2005Mackenzie Delta - Clearing 08 July 17 June 19-22 JuneKugmallit Bay - Clearing 07 July 27 June 29 June 02 JulyTuktoyaktuk Peninsula - Fracture 04 July 2 July 30 June 03 July Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst - Open water 03 Aug 26 July 30 July 02 August Coastal waterway Mackenzie Bay to Prudhoe Bay - Open drift or less 19 August 13 August 18-21 AugustCoastal waterway Prudhoe Bay to Point Barrow - Open drift or less - Close pack (refreeze) 17 July 20 October 1 August 6 October 03-06 August 06-08 OctoberCape Lisbourne to Point Barrow - Open drift or less - Open water 26 June 14 July 3 July 18 July 09-12 July 21-24 JulyWainwright - Open drif or less 28 June 29 June 02-05 JulyCoastal waterway Prudhoe Bay to Barter Island - Open drift or less 28 July 01 August 03-06 AugustOpen water route to Taloyoak 31 August 16 August 23-26 AugustAmundsen Gulf - Fracture1 - Clearing 11 July Never 7 July 15 August 06-09 July 19-22 AugustCoronation Gulf - Fracture1 - Clearing 20 July 16 August 15 July 31 July 10-13 July 25-28 July Queen Maud Gulf - Fracture 31 July 23 July 02-05 AugustLarsen Sound - Fracture1 17 August 31 July 15-18 AugustPeel Sound - Fracture1 24 August 31 July 06-09 August SELECTED SEA ICE DATA AND SEVERITY INDEX FOR THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA 1953-2004 12345678RANKYEAR10-Aug15-Sep10-Aug15-Sepdatedate#days#daysObs InxFcst Indx12004132387026016-Jul8-Oct716863760221958501505021019-Jul25-Oct929962444631968251653020019-Jul18-Oct869161549541998151052024015-Jul21-Oct7210058448652003181672718521-Jul20-Oct5292568481619930130518518-Jul7-Nov641125653887200201351822513-Aug14-Oct326450429381962251503015019-Jul30-Sep496849040691973580519031-Jul20-Oct738248634410195420115202101-Aug30-Sep386148455211199728150401508-Aug10-Oct47634632971219635130513013-Aug18-Oct6767442351131990090409023-Jul12-Oct75105429173141961151051513525-Jul24-Sep496241841415199610657015516-Jul25-Sep3771405446161979012501254-Aug8-Oct315639417817198910705511019-Jul22-Oct349538328418197410100101006-Aug5-Oct3561351372191978570309525-Jul9-Oct357634349220198610801011029-Jul21-Oct305834251721199915454510530-Jul8-Oct56703389822197755525852-Aug15-Oct63743363812319592065206519-Jul6-Oct42863312712419953030505015-Jul17-Oct7094329477251972060309031-Jul1-Oct45633202512619820850953-Aug10-Oct2169318271271994103510605-Aug24-Sep445525133428195754570601-Aug6-Oct18672503002919870100855-Aug30-Oct3559250299301981003510026-Jul1-Oct0662325213120001070107531-Jul2-Oct19332282743219850350551-Aug15-Oct2252224245331967150305025-Jul12-Oct6821321234198402505011-Aug15-Oct2142209219351966505451-Aug22-Oct246519429636199215015759-Aug9-Sep243718856037196501007025-Aug25Sep2532173182382001025152517-Aug8-Oct2652172262391980152515255-Aug30-Sep11421594264019530053527-Jul16-Sep55215721341197601501515-Aug7-Oct21531501064219710003023-Aug1-Nov8711471664319910002016-Aug2-Oct0461111994419600020205-Aug7-Sep034110231451988000259-Aug20-Sep032110354461964000513-Aug20-Sep039955364719830100108-Aug16-Sep021924148197000506-Aug14-Sep03287251491956000407-Sep30-Sep0248793501969000307-Sep18-Sep512701575119550051513-Sep24-Sep01244445219755050NEVERNEVER0008 1 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (10 Aug) 2 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to ice edge (15 Sept) 3 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (10 Aug) 4 - Distance from Point Barrow northward to boundary of five tenths ice concentration (15 Sept) 5 - Initial date entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration 6 - Date that combined ice concentration and thickness dictate end of prudent navigation 7 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay ice free 8 - Number of days entire sea route to Prudhoe Bay less than/equal to five tenths ice concentration Appendix A - Key To Sea Ice Symbols For more information on this section, please refer to the following web link on the Canadian Ice Service web site: http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?ID=155&LnId=3&Lang=eng or on the National Ice Center web site: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/egg_code/index.html Appendix B Stages of Development of Sea Ice For more information on this section, please refer to the following web link on the Canadian Ice Service web site: http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?ID=11170&LnId=32&Lang=eng Appendix C - Broadcast Schedules For Arctic Ice and Marine Conditions For more information on this section, please refer to the following web links: Canadian coast guard: http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/mcts-sctm/ramn_arnm/Atlantic/part_5_e.htm Alaska Marine VHF Voice: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/akvhfv.htm NOAA MF/HF Voice 4125kHZ: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/noaahfv.htm NOAA Weather Radio at U.S. Coast Guard Sites in Alaska: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/aknwr.htm For further information concerning these services please contact Canadian Ice Service by phone (613) 996-1550 or email at cis-scg.client@ec.gc.ca or the National Ice Center by phone at (301) 394-3050 or email liaison@natice.noaa.gov. 1 Fracture indicates complete breakage of consolidated ice.  Fracture indicates complete breakage of consolidated ice. 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