аЯрЁБс>ўџ DFўџџџCџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСY П§$bjbjѓWѓW -D‘=‘=§ џџџџџџ]8888888LLLLL X4LІ Ж ЖЖЖЖ‘‘‘<U a m $\ єP b‘ 8‘‘‘‘‘‘ Ѕ88ЖЖл ЅЅЅ‘ 8Ж8ЖLL8888‘ЅrЅ88ЖŒP Ш$ЧПLL› SEASONAL OUTLOOK SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR: BAFFIN BAY, DAVIS STRAIT, LABRADOR SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST GREENLAND WATERS SUMMER 2000 NATIONAL ICE CENTER / NAVAL ICE CENTER Historically the Baffin Bay melt does not begin until June, although the first signs of the North Open Water are observed in May. During the beginning of the melt, the western boundary of the pack ice begins to recede eastward, meeting the north open water. A broad flaw lead forms along the Greenland coast and gradually moves northward to Melville Bay. The pack ice begins receding, leaving an ice bridge across Baffin Bay (from NW Greenland to Central Baffin Island). This ice bridge will break sometime between the last half of July and the third week of August. The remaining ice will be composed of rotten floes that are rapidly falling apart, and disappear completely by mid-September. The main objectives of the Eastern Seasonal Outlook are to forecast the thinning of the ice bridge for planning escorted shipping operations, and the breaking of the ice bridge for planning for unescorted operations. Overall, conditions throughout the route across the Labrador Sea, Davis Strait and Baffin Bay are expected to be on schedule to slightly ahead of schedule for the beginning of the upcoming shipping season. Table 1 provides the forecast opening dates for the transit to Thule, Greenland. Table 1 Forecast and Normal Opening Dates Thule, Greenland PORT FORECAST NORMAL FORECAST NORMAL ESCORTED ESCORTED UNESCORTED UNESCORTED OPENING OPENING OPENING OPENING DATE DATE DATE DATE Thule July 15 July 20 August 2 August 5 Escorted: Concentrations of ice encountered on the transit to Thule will be 7/10s or less and any fast ice will be in a weakened state. Unescorted: Concentrations of ice encountered on the transit to Thule will be 1/10 or less. Page 1 Freezing Degree Day (FDD) Accumulations and Ice Thickness (Table 2) are shown for the 1999-2000 winter season and historical Maximum, Minimum, and Mean data for selected locations in the Baffin Bay / Davis Strait / Labrador Sea area. (See Figure 1 for port locations). Ice thickness values are slightly thinner than the mean climatological thickness in all cases for mid May 2000. The Freezing Degree-day values for the stations along the western shore of Greenland were both below normal for mid May 2000. The two stations reporting on the western shore of Baffin Bay and Davis Straits are right around the mean. Both give an indication of a slightly early to normal navigation season. Table 2 Current and Climatological Freezing Degree Days / Theoretical Thickness (Freezing Degree Days - Degrees C) (Theoretical Thickness - Centimeters) LOCATION MAXIMUM MINIMUM MEAN 14 MAY 00 FDD / THK FDD / THK FDD / THK FDD / THK Thule 5093 / 178 3721 / 142 4496 / 168 4018 / 156 Upernavik 3654 / 149 2207 / 75 3043 / 134 2791 / 126 Sondrestrom 4010 / 146 1915 / 26 2927 / 108 0 / 0* Cape Dyer 4607 / 171 3204 / 137 3927 / 155 3834 / 152 Frobisher Bay 4660 / 171 3182 / 122 3866 / 155 3811 / 151 Angmagssalik 1793 / 94 949 / 41 1260 / 81 971 / 28* Resolution Is. 3766 / 152 2066 / 105 2927 / 132 0 / 0* * Values reset before 14 May 00. Page 2 Table 3 lists the distance in nautical miles from select ports to the nearest ice edge on the 8th of May 2000, verses the mean distance for the 1st of May. As can be seen from Table 3, the position of the ice edge is greater than the mean at all locations with the exception of Angmagssalik on the eastside of Greenland. Table 3 Distance From Selected ports to the ice edge in nautical miles. PORT MEAN(May 1) PRESENT (May 8, 2000) Thule 540 630 Upernavik 210 335 Cape Dyer 130 150 Frobisher Bay 240 280 Angmagssalik 60 40 Resolution Is. 80 140 Figure 2 indicates the climatological maximum, mean and minimum positions of the ice edge for May 15th. Figure 3 depicts the actual ice conditions present for the week of May 08 through the 12th, 2000. The ice extent in the St. Lawrence, Grand Banks, and Labrador Sea lies between a climatological mean and a minimum. The Davis Straits and Baffin Bay were near a climatological mean. The openings of the North Open Water was between the mean and the maximum on the 8th of May but was around the mean on the 15th of May. The same is true for the area just south of Disko Island, which was between the mean and the maximum due to belts, and strips of ice advecting into the area. By the 15th of May the area south of Disko Island had become open water, with a lead extending North to about Upernavik. Page 3 Several factors were considered during the preparation of the outlook. Their description and weight in the outlook are discussed in the following paragraph. Values plotted on standard ice thickness curves for Thule, Upernavik, and Angmagssalik showed values slightly below the mean climatological curves for the early winter season, and trending closer to the minimum by the beginning of May. Freezing Degree Day data supplied by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) for six stations, Alert, Eureka, Frobisher Bay, Resolute, Pond Inlet, and Clyde showed normal to below normal accumulations for the winter season, except in Alert which was above the median accumulation. When values for freezing degree-days accumulation and ice thicknesses are compared with past years as shown in Table 2 all stations were below the climatological mean. As noted in Table 3 the distances to the ice edge are above the mean for all stations. Greater ice extents are in contradiction to the lower than mean ice thickness and FDD totals exhibited in the reporting stations. It was the decision of the forecasters that the greater ice extents in the May 8th charts was due to belting and striping of the ice edge. As expected the chart from the week of the 15th of May, the ice edge had receded to a more mean to minimum position then the week before. Next, we compared the ice edge and inner pack concentrations from the week of the 8th to our climatological database of archived charts to find an analog year. After comparing the ice edge and re-occurring polynyas from this year to years past, we choose 1980, 1975, and 1976 as good analogs for the current ice conditions. When we looked at the unescorted transit times for the three analog years, we found that the opening dates were the 12th July, 27th July, and the 5th of August, all earlier than normal to normal. With the agreement of the FDD, theoretical thickness and the analog years indicating a slightly earlier than normal opening, we felt confident in our initial forecast. Another guidance is the 30day 700mb forecasts of heights and height anomalies from NCEP. According to the forecast charts, there should be a trough of low pressure over Baffin Bay with a slight negative tilt. This sort of pattern would indicate Northwest or northerly winds over Baffin Bay. Where as temperatures may be relatively colder, the Northwest wind direction combined with southern moving current along the eastern Baffin Bay should help clear the northern area of Baffin of ice earlier than normal. In the third week of May, we meet with Forecasters from CIS to compare our finding to their results for CIS East Outlook. The East seasonal Outlook produced by CIS is of a larger scope, and their forecast ports are different from this Outlook’s but the general information that goes into their forecast is similar to what is used at NIC. After discussing the indicators and climatology we were in agreement for a slightly earlier than normal to normal transit season. You can access the CIS Seasonal Outlooks from the CIS homepage at  HYPERLINK http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca http://www.cis.ec.gc.ca Figures 4 and 5 show mean climatological and expected ice conditions for July 15, 2000. Due to the combination of factors listed above, the unescorted opening of the ice route for the transit to Thule, Greenland is forecasted to be approximately three days earlier than normal. 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